Trump Gaslights California

FRESNO, Calif. — Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told California voters Friday that he can solve their water crisis, declaring, “There is no drought.”

California is, in fact, in midst of a drought. Last year capped the state’s driest four-year period in its history, with record low rainfall and snow.

From here.

Any old anti-science conservative can deny climate change, or at least deny that people caused climate change.  It takes somebody like Trump to up the ante and deny the existence of an obvious, currently in progress drought.

Trump blamed all of California's water crisis on an endangered species protection measure that uses some of California's water.  But, the fact that California does have some bad water practices doesn't change the fundamental fact that the state is in a drought due to record low precipitation that makes bad water practices more of a problem.

Former Colorado Springs Sheriff Finally Indicted Last Week

The former Sheriff of El Paso County, in which Colorado Springs is located, was indicted last week. The only real mystery is why prosecutors waited until he had been out of office for months when his misconduct was widely known.  This particular incident involves a women who was a victim of domestic violence at the hands of a cop.  As Colorado Pols explains:

Terry Maketa, former El Paso County Sheriff, was indicted Wednesday, May 25, 2016, by a Grand Jury on six felony counts, including extortion, tampering with a witness, and second-degree kidnapping. The latter two charges stem from Maketa and codefendants Paula Presley and Juan San Agustin intimidating a witness to keep her from testifying against her abuser, a deputy under Maketa’s supervision. From Benzel and Sun’s Gazette reporting: 

After a sheriff’s deputy was arrested in August 2013 for assaulting his girlfriend, Maketa directed the woman to recant her story and tell investigators she “instigated the incident in order to allow (the deputy) to get his job back,” the indictment alleges. When the woman, a civilian jail employee, followed his instructions and provided a false confession about being “the aggressor,” she was arrested on suspicion of domestic violence, assault and driving under the influence.  

“Detective Lisa Kaiser, the interviewing and arresting officer, did not believe she had probable cause to arrest (the woman) for either crime, but arrested (her) because the order came from her superiors,” the indictment says. 

Maketa was booked and bonded out of jail on Thursday, May 26 . Maketa had resigned in disgrace in 2014, ahead of a recall effort, amidst charges of sexual misconduct, corruption, and incompetence in his office.

Previous coverage here.  He threatened to deport detainees when the federal government failed to do so.  He was also a constitutional sheriff, which basically means that he was willing to engage in treason by declaring war on federal officials, a problem that hasn't gone away as NPR reports today.

Noodle Cup Fail

When making packaged noodles, good design practice does not support putting the most critical language of the instructions (how long it needs to be in the microwave) in small print in almost the same color as the background packaging.

Republicans Still Dishonest

Descpicable, as usual.

"GOP Senator Says He Was Unmoved By Meeting With Merrick Garland Before Meeting Actually Happens; A Utah newspaper published an op-ed by Sen. Orrin Hatch saying the meeting hadn't changed his mind about Garland; There was just one problem": Cristian Farias and Sam Stein of The Huffington Post have this report today

And Lawrence Hurley of Reuters has a report headlined "Oops! Senator's article tells of phantom meeting with Obama nominee.

From here.

Don't Be "That Girl", Buy Renter's Insurance

From here.

Alleged Bagel Terrorist Charged

Denver Police have named and arrested a suspect in the murder and arson at Rosenberg's Bagels. Previous coverage of the case can be found here.

In news of another case that was much colder, an individual has been charged and arrested and other suspects have been identified in the death, allegedly by murder for hire, of an FSU Law Professor Dan Markel, who was a law blogger, in Miami Beach in 2014.

DOD's IT Hardware Is Just Barely Post-Slide Rule

It is not reassuring that the U.S. military's nuclear weapons arsenal is controlled by computers with 1970s vintage eight inch floppy disks.

[T]he Pentagon is planning to replace its floppy systems -- which currently coordinate intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), nuclear bombers and tanker support aircraft -- by the end of 2017.

My children, who are just a few years younger than the soldiers using these antiquated computers have never even seen a computer using one.

Isn't the strategic nuclear force supposed to be one of the high technology parts of the U.S. military?

I thought it was bad when tanks and Stryker armored personnel carriers in the Iraq War had to rely on Microsoft Outlook and civilian cell phones to communicate with each other.  But, it turns out that this was actually rather sophisticated by Defense Department standards.

Colorado, the "Try Everything State"

Perhaps, Colorado should adopt the motto (and state song?): "Try everything."

Seriously, four kinds of heavy substance use isn't good news, but you have to take that with a grain of salt and recognize that Colorado is also, by most measures, the healthiest state in the nation overall.

Waco Would Have Lynched Copernicus

Bill Nye, the harmless children's edu-tainer known as "The Science Guy," managed to offend a select group of adults in Waco, Texas at a presentation, when he suggested that the moon does not emit light, but instead reflects the light of the sun. As even most elementary-school graduates know, the moon reflects the light of the sun but produces no light of its own.

But don't tell that to the good people of Waco, who were "visibly angered by what some perceived as irreverence," according to the Waco Tribune.

Nye was in town to participate in McLennan Community College's Distinguished Lecture Series. He gave two lectures on such unfunny and adult topics as global warming, Mars exploration, and energy consumption.

But nothing got people as riled as when he brought up Genesis 1:16, which reads: "God made two great lights -- the greater light to govern the day and the lesser light to govern the night. He also made the stars."

The lesser light, he pointed out, is not a light at all, but only a reflector.

At this point, several people in the audience stormed out in fury. One woman yelled "We believe in God!" and left with three children, thus ensuring that people across America would read about the incident and conclude that Waco is as nutty as they'd always suspected.

From here (note, the events in question apparently happened in 2006).

Ryan Bundy Goes Big

Lots of prisons sue their jailers for violating their rights.  Some of them even deserve to win.

But, one can rest assured that even if it is a matter of first impression, that Ryan Bundy, who was jailed after occupying federal property under force of arms, does not have a Second Amendment right to bear arms while in jail awaiting trial, as he claims in his lawsuit.

Even the NRA would probably agree with that limitation on the Second Amendment.

"Lower" Africa Is War Free And Not Overwhelmed With Murders Either

The more southern part of Africa (e.g. the Congo and points south), except the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo with some conflict lingers on, is pretty much war free at the moment. Homicide rates in Africa are also about half what they are in the Americas, although higher than most of the rest of the world that is not at war.

Are Ill Adapted "Brutes" Driving Current Events?

Tyler Cohen has an interestingly posed hypothesis (emphasis in the original):

Donald Trump may get the nuclear suitcase, a cranky “park bench” socialist took Hillary Clinton to the wire, many countries are becoming less free, and the neo-Nazi party came very close to assuming power in Austria. I could list more such events.

Haven’t you, like I, wondered what is up? What the hell is going on?

I don’t know, but let me tell you my (highly uncertain) default hypothesis. I don’t see decisive evidence for it, but it is a kind of “first blast” attempt to fit the basic facts while remaining within the realm of reason.

The contemporary world is not very well built for a large chunk of males. The nature of current service jobs, coddled class time and homework-intensive schooling, a feminized culture allergic to most forms of violence, post-feminist gender relations, and egalitarian semi-cosmopolitanism just don’t sit well with many…what shall I call them? Brutes?

Quite simply, there are many people who don’t like it when the world becomes nicer. They do less well with nice. And they respond by in turn behaving less nicely, if only in their voting behavior and perhaps their internet harassment as well.

His post continues to explore the idea at greater length.

The short response is that I think he is onto something.  In particular, the decline of marriage among working class whites is primarily driven by the stagnant state of blue collar men relative to the rising prospects of women of the same social class. And, it is likewise true that lots of legal changes to penalize what was once acceptable behavior for these men have taken effect in the last generation or two.

They may not be right that immigration and international is taking away their jobs, but the connection is not an irrational one to make.  Both Sanders on the left and Trump on the right are decidedly anti-trade for that reason.

Of course, neither Tyler Cohen nor I can point to easy solutions as there have been good reasons for many of these changes.

Out of Wedlock Birthrates Driven By Particular Governmental Policies

Out of wedlock birthrates in Europe cannot be explained by religion, history of communist government, or pretty much any other broad regional factor you'd like to point to. Instead, you have to look to nation (or in federal systems, state) specific policies like Scandinavian social welfare benefit system policies and the French enthusiasm for non-marital civil unions.

Chicago Ignores The Right To Counsel

Colorado used to make misdemeanor defendants plea bargain before having counsel appointed, which federal courts subsequently held was unconstitutional.  So, Colorado district attorneys have had to reform their practices.

Chicago is worse.  Only 1% of people incarcerated in its jails have seen a lawyer, in a clear violation of the constitutional right of indigent criminal defendants to be represented by counsel at public expense.  Of course, this isn't the only thing rotten in Chicago, which is also violating numerous other constitutional rights of its citizens in its criminal justice process.

OFF TOPIC BUT RELATED:

The criminal justice system is notorious for defending police officers who behave badly no matter how obvious it is that they have screwed up.

A recent case out of San Diego (in which the police lost an appeal to the 9th Circuit) in which police mounted a massive armed raid on a 7 year old girl's birthday party despite quickly learning that the tip that they received had no connection to reality is typical.  Police authority evaporates almost instantly in the absence of probable cause or a reasonable suspicion of criminal conduct, but police aren't at all good at backing down when they learn that a situation is far different from what their tip led them to believe.  Yet, the government has strenuously defended the bad police conduct at trial and on appeal, to no avail, rather than conceding that obvious misconduct was wrong.

Asian-Americans In College Admissions

I have two kids, both half-Asian American, who will be going to college in the next few years.  So, the following data is not encouraging (and tracks a previous similar phenomena in college admissions affecting Jews):

[O]ne feature of modern college admissions practices in the United States that can often be overlooked in this discussion is that white applicants receive a significant boost relative to Asian-Americans. This is among the findings of a major study by Princeton sociologists Thomas J. Epenshade and Alexandria Walton Radford, who also observe that Hispanic and African-American applicants receive a boost relative to whites. 

According to the authors’ models, an Asian-American applicant must score 140 points more on the SAT out of 1600 than her white counterpart, all other things equal, to stand a comparable chance of admission at an elite institution. 

The finding here is not just that the average admitted Asian student has a higher SAT score than her white counterpart. If that were all the data showed, then it wouldn’t support the inference that whites receive a boost relative to Asians, for the data would then be consistent with the hypothesis that despite having lower SAT scores, the average white applicant has better credentials in other areas. 

On the contrary, what the data shows is this. Consider two applicants, Claudia and Alice, who have very similar applications for the most part. They both come from equally good high schools, have the same GPA, neither of them is a legacy or an athlete, and so on. However, Claudia is white and Alice is Asian-American. In light of this, Alice will have to score 140 points more than Claudia if she is to stand an equal chance of getting into an institution like Harvard or Yale Universities. And if their SAT scores are equal, then Alice’s application better be much more impressive than Claudia’s in some other respect(s). 

Many see these statistics as a consequence of elite institutions using implicit quotas to limit the number of Asian students on campus. . . . 

Moreover, Epenshade and Radford find that if admissions policies were designed to give a boost to applicants coming from backgrounds of low socioeconomic status, without consideration of race, the number of admitted Asian students would rise substantially.

The essay goes on at length to consider why this might be the case and whether it is justified, but this post merely addresses the empirical reality.

The Firebrand Generation

A recent color piece on Oberlin College in the New Yorker Magazine tags the tempestuous cauldron that is my alma mater as the exemplar of the "Firebrand Generation" of younger millennials.

The stories have a familiar ring. Student government institutions that I put in place when I was on campus are alive and well (e.g. a student senate headed by "co-liaisons" rather than a study body president).  The general tenor of the P.C. and identity politics have continued on the trend line it was on when I was there.

Oberlin isn't a utopian model. But, it is a canary in the mineshaft at the bleeding edge of identifying cultural trends and activist issues. Sometimes I think the issues it fights over are misguided, but I take a great joy in knowing that Oberlin is still a place where almost everyone seems to give a damn.

Heroin Deaths Surging In Colorado (Like Everywhere Else)

[Dr. Larry] Wolk is the executive director of the Colorado Department of Health and Environment. The agency says heroin overdose deaths have increased by more than 700 percent since 2003. New numbers show 157 people died from heroin in 2015, up from just 21 in 2003.

From here.

For context, I can say nothing that isn't captured in a beautiful blog piece entitled the Unnecessariat.

In 2011, economist Guy Standing coined the term “precariat” to refer to workers whose jobs were insecure, underpaid, and mobile, who had to engage in substantial “work for labor” to remain employed, whose survival could, at any time, be compromised by employers (who, for instance held their visas) and who therefore could do nothing to improve their lot. The term found favor in the Occupy movement, and was colloquially expanded to include not just farmworkers, contract workers, “gig” workers, but also unpaid interns, adjunct faculty, etc. Looking back from 2016, one pertinent characteristic seems obvious: no matter how tenuous, the precariat had jobs. The new dying Americans, the ones killing themselves on purpose or with drugs, don’t. Don’t, won’t, and know it.

Here’s the thing: from where I live, the world has drifted away. We aren’t precarious, we’re unnecessary. The money has gone to the top. The wages have gone to the top. The recovery has gone to the top. And what’s worst of all, everybody who matters seems basically pretty okay with that. The new bright sparks, cheerfully referred to as “Young Gods” believe themselves to be the honest winners in a new invent-or-die economy, and are busily planning to escape into space or acquire superpowers, and instead of worrying about this, the talking heads on TV tell you its all a good thing- don’t worry, the recession’s over and everything’s better now, and technology is TOTES AMAZEBALLS!

If there’s no economic plan for the Unnecessariat, there’s certainly an abundance for plans to extract value from them. No-one has the option to just make their own way and be left alone at it. It used to be that people were uninsured and if they got seriously sick they’d declare bankruptcy and lose the farm, but now they have a (mandatory) $1k/month plan with a $5k deductible: they’ll still declare bankruptcy and lose the farm if they get sick, but in the meantime they pay a shit-ton to the shareholders of United Healthcare, or Aetna, or whoever. This, like shifting the chronically jobless from “unemployed” to “disabled” is seen as a major improvement in status, at least on television.

Every four years some political ingenue decides that the solution to “poverty” is “retraining”: for the information economy, except that tech companies only hire Stanford grads, or for health care, except that an abundance of sick people doesn’t translate into good jobs for nurses’ aides, or nowadays for “the trades” as if the world suffered a shortage of plumbers. The retraining programs come and go, often mandated for recipients of EBT, but the accumulated tuition debt remains behind, payable to the banks that wouldn’t even look twice at a graduate’s resume. There is now a booming market in debtor’s prisons for unpaid bills, and as we saw in Ferguson the threat of jail is a great way to extract cash from the otherwise broke (thought it can backfire too). Eventually all those homes in Oklahoma, in Ohio, in Wyoming, will be lost in bankruptcy and made available for vacation homes, doomsteads, or hobby farms for the “real” Americans, the ones for whom the ads and special sections in the New York Times are relevant, and their current occupants know this. They are denizens, to use Standing’s term, in their own hometowns.

There is much, much more in the linked blog post.  Finally, an image from a related post on the futility of entrepreneurship as an alternative is too amazing not to post:

Esperanto Has Second And Third Generation Native Speakers

The constructed language Klingon has one native speaker.

But, the older constructed language, Esperanto (invented in 1887), actually has at least one second generation native speaker (who is the child of parents who were native speakers of Esperanto). As the report from a British Esperanto conference explains:

[A] genial 35-year-old man by the (actual) name of Rolf Fantom. . . . was famous for being that rarest of human incarnations: a second-generation native Esperanto speaker; that is to say, his mother’s parents met through Esperanto and this was their common language; they thus bequeathed Esperanto to their daughter who, in turn, brought up young Rolf to speak it as his denaska lingvo.

It turns out that there are even third generation native speakers of Esperanto: "Nils Martin Klünder’s great-grandfather learned Esperanto, taught it natively to his kids, who taught it natively to his kids, who taught it natively to Nils."

There are an estimated two thousand native speakers of Esperanto, all of whom are multi-lingual, among them businessman and political activist George Soros.

Sikhs Are Not Muslims

Denver's first Sikh Nagar Kirtan parade in front of East High School, in honor of their eternal guru. There are about 500 Sikh families in greater Denver and there are several Sikh places of worship with Sikh communities in Colorado (for example, in Colorado Springs and Boulder).

In the United States, if you see a someone with a beard and long hair wearing a turban, and possibly openly carrying a sheathed knife, there is a 98%+ chance that this person is a Sikh (a member of a monotheistic religion originating in territory of disputed sovereignty in Northwest India/Northeast Pakistan).  They are not Muslims.

Similarly, almost every man with "Singh" in his name, and almost every woman with "Kaur" in her name is a Sikh.

Espanola, New Mexico and Los Angeles, California have a large share of U.S. Sikhs who are non-South Asian converts.

The first Asian American member of the U.S. Congress, Dalip Singh Saund, was a Sikh, and the current governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, was raised as a Sikh but converted to Christianity after she married.

Like the Hindu majority in India, Sikhs tend to be vegetarians.  But, "Sikhs are about equality, regardless of race, religion, caste or sex", in addition to prayer, serving the community, and hard work.

Sikhs are victims of lots of hate crimes and discrimination. There are a variety of prejudices one could hold against Sikhs. But, Sikhs do not tend to be victimized because the people committing the hate crimes and engaging in discriminatory behavior actually have prejudices about Sikhs.

Instead, the people engaging in the discriminatory behavior and committing the hate crimes have prejudices against Muslims, mostly based upon the conduct of various radical Islamist Muslims. But, because religiously observant Sikhs in traditional Sikh garb are easily distinguishable, and a tiny minority of Muslims (almost all outside the United States) dress in a somewhat similar way, Sikhs are often mistaken for Muslims.

This sucks for Sikhs because lots of Americans have strong anti-Islamic views and very few Americans have anti-Sikh views.

U.S. Paratroopers Discover That Driving Is Faster Than Walking

Apparently, the year 2016 was the year when U.S. airborne units made the revolutionary discovery that driving is faster than walking:

“These vehicles significantly enhance what would otherwise be foot mobility,” Brig. Gen. Brian Winski, deputy commander of the 82nd Airborne, told Bloomberg News. “They change the dynamic and turn what would have been a three-mile per hour operation into a 50-mile per hour operation.”

There are challenges to this approach, however.  Unfortunately, the whole airdropping a vehicle concept does not have a 100% success rate. As a result, the whole, driving concept for paratroopers is only a "pilot project" at this point.