06 November 2006

Down Ticket Race Polling and Analysis

While this isn't exactly breaking news, Colorado Pols recapped the latest polling in the downticket statewide races last week. All three have large numbers of undecided voters.

In the State Treasurer's race, Democrat Cary Kennedy leads Republican Mark Hillman 44-35. Kennedy needs one-third of the undecided vote to win. While Ritter's coat tails won't necessarily be long, there is little to suggest that Kennedy will have trouble picking up, at least, a third of the undecided vote, so she is likely to join Bill Ritter in the capitol.

In the Secretary of State's race, Democrat Ken Gordon trails Republican Mike Coffman 38-41. Gordon needs a little more than 57% of the undecided vote to win. Gordon needs to benefit from Bill Ritter's coat tails, or the Democratic wave of this election season to win, but he certainly has a real shot at winning this race. It is still a toss up.

In the Attorney General's race, Democrat Fern O'Brien trails Republican John Suthers 32-38. This would generally mean that O'Brien needs 60% of the undecided vote to win. Her odds are likely not that good, however. The Libertarian candidate has been polling about 7% in the race. While this draws mostly from John Suthers' support, it also means that there are really fewer undecided voters in the race than it appears. So, realistically, she needs two-thirds of the undecided vote to win. This is a long shot, but not beyond the realm of possibility, if the stars align in her favor tomorrow. Many Democrats will secure two-thirds of the unaffiliated vote, and undecided voters tend to favor challengers. But, partisan instincts in Colorado weigh against O'Brien, and most of the Democrats securing two-thirds of the unaffiliated vote have well funded campaigns and are leading in the polls overall.

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