08 May 2008

Election Arbitrage

The best predictor of the future of public policy in the United States right now are the stances that the Presidential candidates have taken on the issues, modified and clarified by their voting records in Congress -- which are particularly helpful for issues not addressed in detail at campaign websites or in candidate speeches. Links to the campaign promises are below:

* Clinton

* McCain

* Obama

While there is uncertainty at this point regarding the future of American policy, (1) policies contrary to all of the listings above are unlikely to become law, (2) the policies upon which there is consensus in those links are highly likely to become law, and (3) policies of Barack Obama which differ from those of Hillary Clinton and John McCain are more likely than not be become law.

For many purposes, this is sufficient to make much more meaningful guesses about how to make decisions now than simply assuming a total lack of knowledge, which is what many people do until they know the winner for sure.

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