05 May 2008

Obama Inevitable?

A New York Times delegate counter makes pointedly clear that it will take a miracle for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination in 2008.

The number of superdelegates she must win if she wins a number of primary/caucus delegates within a plausibly likely range, is extremely high. This is particuarly true considering that in those scenarios, she will go into the convention with a minority of pledged delegates, something that will make it especially hard for her to win the two-thirds plus of remaining superdelegates sh will need.

The number of primary/caucus delegates she would need to bring the number of superdelegates required to a plausible level would require a sea change in public opinion in the remaininig states over the next month. But polling shows no sign that this is happening.


Anonymous said...

Two words dispute you.



Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

The odds of either counting have grown so small as to approach the miraculous level. No deals are in the works and both candidates are talking about resolving the race based upon where they stand on June 3. There is no way that Michigan's delegation will be seated without a revote if they count, and Florida has been so defiant in the face of a genuine chance to have their state count that I doubt that they will be seated if it matters either.

Also, almost a third of the remaining delegates will be allocated tomorrow. North Carolina favors Obama, Indiana is likely to be close to break even. This will make the percentage of remaining delegates that Clinton needs much higher.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

More details on MI And FL via TalkLeft.

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew,

The link to your "delegate counter" above is pointing towards a Littoral Combat Ship post I have on www.instapinch.com. I thank you for the link, but am pretty sure you misdirected it by accident.

Unless, of course, you were playing a subtle game by "accidentally" pointing out an extremely promising military program that could be canceled by an Obama presidency and as such reflect what I think are his incredibly abysmal and naive qualifications to be commander in chief of our armed forces.

But, in any event, I agree with your post. Obama is pretty much inevitable now, and I do not like what that portends for our nation.


Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

An accident on my part indeed. Thanks for the heads up. I think I'll leave it as it is simply to be whimsical.

I'm also no inspired to look at Obama's voting record and the names of his advisors in defense procurement to see what that portends. I suspect that you are wrong on the LCS, although I don't doubt that there will be changes in defense policy.