11 November 2005

Congressional Approval in 1993 v. 2005

Sotosoroto asked a good question yesterday about a poll I posted, and found a significantly different poll to compare later. After a little searching, I found the answer. His question:

In recent history, 1994 had the biggest changeover in the US Congress. I wonder if there was a similar poll in late 1993 to compare against.

The answer:

The NBC/WSJ poll results from July 1993 to May 1994 were similar, with 47 percent to 55 percent saying that it was time to give a new person a chance, and only 30 percent to 37 percent saying that their House Member deserved re-election.


The same question from the same polling operation now says:

Q. In the 2006 election for US Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think it is time to give a new person a chance?

Deserves to be reelected: 37%
Give new person a chance: 51%

We are seeing a sea change in public opinion. We are currently on track to see a 1994 class turnover in Congress. It is hardly fate. But, when an NPR reporter announces that the prevailing mood among Republicans in Congress is "every man for himself" and the President's approval ratings are at record lows, something major is going to have to happen for that fate to be avoided.


Off Colfax said...

something major is going to have to happen for that fate to be avoided.

Such as the head of Osama bin Laden on a silver platter?

That'd do it for a vast majority of folks.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I'm not sure Osma's head would impact public opinion for more than a month or two. Once people discovered that the Iraq war was no different without him, that terrorism events from al-Queda still continued, that the budget deficit was still huge, and that another Bush official or two was still indicted for lying, I'm not sure it would make all that much difference. Another war, maybe, a head on a platter, no.